This week, the black market maintained a low-level fluctuation, with a differentiated pattern among varieties: After the first round of increase and decrease of coke prices, the downward trend of the market slowed down and turned to fluctuation. However, the limited profits of steel mills and the weak terminal demand restricted the space for the second round of increase. Iron ore, supported by the output of high-speed molten iron, saw a surge within the week. However, the output of molten iron in May may peak and decline. Coupled with the repeated disruption of export expectations by overseas tariff policies, the medium-term demand risk is gradually accumulating. In terms of finished products, hot-rolled coils perform better than rebar due to their stronger toughness both internally and externally. However, the growth rate of rebar demand has slowed down and the momentum of inventory reduction has weakened. Coupled with the suppression of exports by anti-dumping policies, there is a lack of a trend of upward drive overall. At the macro level, the tone of overseas tariff games and domestic policy determination remains unchanged, and market sentiment is still suppressed. The current rumors of production cuts have intensified the divergence between finished products and raw materials. However, the supply of coking coal is abundant and steel mills are cautious about replenishing inventories, providing limited support from the cost side. It is expected that steel prices will remain volatile and the divergence among varieties will continue. 01 #

TODAY’S INFORMATION: The Federal Reserve’s Financial Stability Survey: Tariffs and policy uncertainties rise to Top Risks. The Federal Reserve released its semi-annual “Financial Stability Report”, indicating that the US market is more sensitive to and concerned about Trump’s policies. 73% of the respondents listed “global trade risks” as the top threat (doubling compared to last year), and half were worried about “policy uncertainties”. The report highlights the risk of an escalation of the trade war after Trump’s return to the White House, and claims that the shift in government spending and participation in international affairs are the main causes of policy fluctuations. Although the financial market partially offset the policy shock (such as the stabilization of commercial real estate and the orderly operation of the stock and bond markets), the warned asset valuations and housing prices remain high, and the leverage ratio of hedge funds is approaching its historical peak, with risks still existing. Brazil makes a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on color-coated steel sheets involving China. April 24, 2025 Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services of Brazil (Ministeriodo Desenvolvimento, Industria) Comercio e Servicos /Secretaria de Comercio Exterior) issue Notice No. 28 of 2025 on color-coated steel sheets originating from China and India (Portuguese: The acos pre-pintados made an affirmative preliminary ruling on anti-dumping, but did not recommend imposing provisional anti-dumping duties. The investigation continued and the time limit for making the final ruling in this case was extended to within 18 months from the date of filing. This case involves the products under the Mercosur tariff codes 7210.70.10, 7210.70.20, 7212.40.10, 7212.40.21 and 7212.40.29. Finance Minister Lanfo ‘an: China will adopt more proactive and effective macro policies. On April 24, 2025, the World Bank held the 111th meeting of its Development Committee in Washington, the United States, and reviewed and approved the report “Employment: The Road to Prosperity”. Finance Minister and World Bank China Director LAN Foan attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Vice Finance Minister and World Bank China Deputy Director Liao Min accompanied the meeting. LAN Foan pointed out that China is both a beneficiary and a contributor to global economic integration. In recent years, China’s contribution rate to global economic growth has remained at around 30%. Under the current complex external environment, China will adopt more proactive and effective macro policies to promote the achievement of the expected growth target for the whole year and continue to bring stability and impetus to the global economy. China adheres to the basic state policy of reform and opening up. It has granted zero-tariff treatment to products from all the least developed countries with which it has established diplomatic relations. China is willing to further open its door to share its super-large-scale market with the world and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.